Alas, my summer course is finally over. This course was heavy on researching, studying, and responding to research studies. Most of the course cover the various research methods and how to organize a written research paper. If the numbers are correct as of today, I managed to squeeze through another course with an A. What follows is a copy of my final paper, a research proposal. Before you skip to it, let it be known that I do have compete survey ideas written out that in no way would've fit into this piece. If you really are curious as to what content the surveys would contain, all you have to do is ask me!
Cyber Operations, Social Media, and Ethics:
Can Memes Effect Elections?
Dawn M. Morris
Trine University
LDR 5333: Research Methods
Dr. Sheila Schmitz
July 28th, 2021
Cyber Operations, Social Media, and Ethics: Can Memes Effect Elections?
The 2016 U.S. Presidential election was the first election where there was possible evidence discovered of foreign actions attempting to persuade or manipulate the election outcome. There are several tools these actors used, which will be discussed further, to persuade American voters. One such tool that was used was a pictorial image called, a meme. Memes themselves are widely used and a common occurrence on the internet. A meme is a reproduced memorable unit used throughout society to influence human behavior (Films Media Group, 2011). Therefore, a meme is placing a micro-thought into your mind, and the goal of the foreign actors is to have this meme change or influence how you perceived a topic and possibly change your voting behavior without regard as to the truthfulness of the information contained within the meme.
Since, the 2016 election, various studies have been completed attempting to explain what happened and how the interference plan was designed to work. Furthermore, access to the complete social media data for voters is not publicly accessible, and only the technology companies have access to do a full behavior analysis, along with polls and other data for users who choose to disclose who they voted for. Since, access to this information is limited outside of the technology corporation, it is imperative that more research be completed on if the tools of a cyber campaign, like a meme, effect and change the behavior of ethical voters. There needs to be expanded research on if ethical voters could be influenced by political memes to change their vote. It is necessary to answer this question, so the extent of influence over the outcome of the 2016 election and subsequent elections could be estimated as well as the behavior modification power of a meme.
Literature Review
The purpose of the proposed study is to understand the extent of influence social media political meme posts may have on voters, and if voters who perceive themselves as ethical could be persuaded to change their beliefs or voting behavior based on exposure to such political meme posts. This study will be a new study which will seek to understand the reasons for changes in voting behavior when exposed to political memes in those that perceive themselves as ethical. While other behavior studies have been completed, none have specifically sought to answer the proposed study’s questions.
In a digitally connected society where cyber interference is possible, it is crucial to conduct studies that will increase the knowledge on the likelihood a social media meme post will influence voting behavior. This review will not explore the degree of which a political meme post is actively used for intellectual discussion and debate among average social media users. Instead, the literature review discussion will focus on the basics of cyber voter interference, and how social media influences the understanding of ethics to understand the probability of persuasion by social media political meme posts.
Cyber Operations: Cyber Voter Interference
Most internet users are aware to some extent of the hidden dangers cyber criminals use to steal information, like viruses, malware, worms, and trojans, which creates fear in the user and makes them leery of some websites and applications. For protection from these tactics’ internet users are encouraged to use anti-virus and malware software programs. However, dangerous cyber operations are conducted on the internet in plain sight on popular trusted social media sites. State sponsored cyber operations include a variety of forms, including cyber voter interference (CVI), which has the goal of influencing voter behaviors using doxing (publicly posting private or stolen information), disinformation (misleading or false information), and trolling (manipulating public debate to create a false version of reality) (Hansen & Lim, 2019).
Researchers Hansen and Lim (2019) discussed two case studies related to the use of CVI in the 2016 U.S. Presidential elections and the 2017 French Presidential elections. In both cases they found Russian cyber hackers and actors were suspected of CVI by using doxing, disinformation campaigns, and trolling campaigns on social media sites to promote or denounce specific candidates. These CVI techniques are used in conjunction with one another to effectively spread information through visual images or through public media discussion boards and posts to sway public opinion.
There are often no identifiable markers on images created in these campaigns to know the true origin of them, which can lead to speculation of them being associated with a cyber operation. Additionally, there is a noted issue identifying and connecting sources in cyber operations due to their complexity (Hansen & Lim, 2019). However, sometimes the origins of the information can be traced, and quickly identified as cyber interference. For example, these case studies did conclude one common link between the two, Fancy Bear, who was linked to both the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and French channel TV5 Monde hacks (Hansen & Lim, 2019). What Hansen and Lim’s study did not conclude is to what extent, if any, did these cyber operations have on the outcome of either the U.S. or French Presidential elections, it only concluded the existence of such operations.
Social Media’s Influence on Understanding of Ethics
While there has been noted occurrences of CVI, the debate as to how much influence these techniques have on election outcomes is minimal. To understand the possibility of CVI succeeding in determining election results and understanding of a person’s ability to perceive ethical social media posts is necessary. Researchers Bagdasarov et al. (2017) conducted a research study to identify how social media might affect a person’s understanding of ethics, and if their personality traits were influential in their ethical stance.
To conduct this study a survey was conducted amongst undergraduate students. They were asked to respond to 14 different scenarios that commonly occur on social media all with ethical implications, provide personal demographic information, and partake in variable related surveys (Bagdasarov et al., 2017). The variables that were measured were used mostly in conjunction with the scenario survey to determine the ability for the participants to recognize if the information on social media is ethical, or not, and if they were linked to any perceived personality or behavioral traits.
The researchers in this study discovered when the participants were exposed to a high number of ethical violations on social media that they were less likely to find the scenarios personally acceptable, those who scored high on the agreeableness trait were more likely to find the same scenarios socially acceptable, and participants expressed an increase in negative feelings about the described unethical situations (Bagdasarov et al., 2017). One of the possible conclusions to the findings is that if the participants were viewing the scenarios as unethical then they might be conforming to the ideal ethical norms portrayed on social media (Bagdasarov et al., 2017). Furthermore, the ability for a person to identify when a situation is unethical varies, which could mean that only those who have a heightened awareness of ethics might be able to identify when a situation is ethical or not (Bagdasarov et al., 2017).
Literature Review Summary
Knowing that agreeableness and conformity have an impact on how someone would view an unethical social media situation helps tremendously in our ability to identify those who are potential cyber operation targets. To what extent a cyber operation will affect a voter largely might be associated with their core personality traits, such as their tendency to be agreeable or conform to the social norms of social media based on social influence regardless of their understanding of ethics. Since social media political meme posts can be difficult to source, potential voters who have a lower understanding of ethics might be more likely to unknowing participate in doxing, misinformation campaigns, and troll campaigns in comparison to those who have a higher understanding of ethics. Lastly, more research is needed to confirm if the political meme posts on social media do have an affect, if any, on election results; therefore, the new proposed study to understand their influence on ethical voters is necessary to further research in this area.
Methods & Design
The purposed study will utilize the concurrent nested mixed-methods research approach. This type of mixed-methods study would be most appropriate, since to answer the research question descriptive responses will be needed in conjunction with responses that can be quantified during a single data collection phase (FoodRisC, 2016). Using both quantitative and qualitative research methods will allow for elaborate explanations on the answers being provided in the survey, therefore assisting in finding new connections and behavioral patterns while providing an in-depth understanding of the topic. If only a purely qualitative or quantitative study were conducted the conclusion to the research question might be based more on speculation than on definitive reasoning. To bring new insight and understanding into this topic a descriptive conclusion based on definite reasoning must be presented.
Participants
The internet will be the primary way used to recruit participants for this research study. The survey itself will be hosted on a secure website, which will be open to the public during a period of 90-days and the recruitment period will be the entirety of the 90-days. The primary means of advertising for recruits will be through social media and email campaigns, since the study will be focused on those who are exposed to social media political memes this is the most appropriate form of recruitment. People will be encouraged to share the study to others for organic reach, and some paid promotional advertising campaigns will be conducted as well, especially during the first month of the study. The recruitment advertising campaigns used on social media will be targeting the demographics 18 years of age or older with no other criteria for audience targeting.
Since the voting population is diverse, the sample population should be of mixed demographics and political beliefs; however, they all should be registered voters. For this study a registered voter will be considered a current registered voter or someone who is planning to register to vote within the next 60 days. The number of participants needed for this survey will be determined by using a population size of 100,000. This size was selected, since there is no clear data available on the number of registered voters who are also social media users. Furthermore, to compute the sample size a confidence level of 95% will be used with a confidence interval of 5% to obtain a needed sample size of 383 (Creative Research Systems, 2021).
Procedure & Measures
The purposed study’s primary purpose will be to understand the extent of influence social media political meme posts may have on voters, and if voters who perceive themselves as ethical could be persuaded to change their beliefs or voting behavior based on exposure to them. Preliminary background research has suggested participants of a previously mentioned research study who viewed certain social media scenarios as unethical might have be conforming to the ideal ethical norms portrayed on social media (Bagdasarov et al., 2017). This leaves the possibility that if a voter is exposed enough to a particular meme or scenario on social media or the internet that possibility exists, they will change their voting behavior to conform to what they are perceiving as the ethical norm regardless of what their initial beliefs were prior to the exposure. The researchers for this purposed study currently believe that an ethical voter would be able to recognize if a meme is unethical or is being used to influence votes, and their vote would align with their beliefs and traits more than on the exposure to a political meme.
To determine the likelihood if a political meme would influence the voting behaviors of a registered voter a quantitative research survey using a polling survey questionnaire will be conducted, with a qualitative research interview survey being performed in conjunction, thus giving the participant an opportunity to elaborate on their beliefs and responses. The quantitative surveying portion of the study will consist of the following: a demographics survey; a big 5 personality trait survey; a social media habits survey; a political traits and beliefs survey; a pictorial survey to identify political party memes; and a pictorial survey to identify ethicalness of political and non-political memes. These survey’s will be measurable since the responses will be first received as a tallied count or scaled response; for example, most likely to least likely, or strongly disagree to strongly agree. The qualitative survey portion of the study will consist of two different interview essay questions. The first question will be placed after the pictorial survey on identifying political party memes to address the question if they would consider changing their vote based on meme information, and why. While the second essay question will be placed after the pictorial survey on identifying the ethicality of memes to describe what an ethical political post would or would not contain.
Due to the data collection method being an anonymous internet survey it will not be possible to perform a second study using the same participants. If the results need clarification or further evaluation the test would be repeated for the same 90-day duration, using the same collection method, and participant criteria. Once conclusive results have been determined the results will be made available in the form of percentages, graphics, and data interpretation with an explanation based on the received essay survey questions.
Data Analysis
To ensure proper understanding of the research study responses, the data will be analyzed and interpreted. Since this research study will utilize a mixed-methods research approach the data analysis will have two differing approaches, qualitative and quantitative, followed by a discussion on the relations between the two data sets. The qualitative research data analysis focuses on the overall meaning of each essay survey response, and identifying key phrases or words the participants use to describe their beliefs, feelings, or actions will also be noted. The data will be analyzed to identify any patterns, unrelated to statistical analysis, and identity relationships between ideas derived from the data (Suter, 2011). The quantitative research data analysis will identify characteristic variables of the participants, frequency distribution of the variables, as well as the percentage distribution of the variables (California State University, 1998). The data itself will be represented visually as tables and graphs for easy examination. Next, the data will be analyzed for any possible connections or relationships between two variables. For example, the data will be analyzed for any casual relationships between variables, and a contingency table will be used to explain and explore the relationships between the variables. To ensure the accuracy of the results a chi square statistic will be constructed to identify the frequencies, and to ensure statistical significance of the findings (California State University, 1998). Once both data analyses are complete they will be compared for further connections to provide an in-depth explanation of findings and observed variables, which will give researchers clarity needed to determine the probability and extent of influence a political meme may have.
Ethical Issues
There are many factors to consider when preparing, conducting, and analyzing a research study. For this purposed study the data collection is intended to allow participants to maintain autonomy, participate voluntarily, and focus on targeting the intended testable group only, which are voters who use social media. The primary ethical consideration for this type of study is the mental competency and integrity of the participants. Since the participants will not be working one-on-one with researchers these ethical factors will be difficult to identify; however, they may become apparent during data analysis. If any possible ethical concerns arise during the data analysis phase of the study this will be addressed during the results analysis discussion to identify any possible inconsistencies of results related arising from these concerns. To assist in reducing any liabilities related to ethical concerns an informed consent form and disclosure statement will be provided, as well as a description of the study prior to any data collection from participants. The informed consent form and disclosure statement will include the name of the research group and sponsoring organization, purpose of the research, how participants were selected, benefits and risks of participating, type of participant involvement, confidentiality statement, a guarantee participants can withdraw from the study, and contact information for any concerns or questions participants may have (Creswell, 2009).
Conclusion
Exposure to political memes on social media and the internet is a common occurrence. With recent speculation of cyber operations aimed at swaying or influencing election results, research is needed to help identify the probability that a voter would be influenced to change their beliefs or behavior based on such exposure. Therefore, the proposed study aims to determine if ethical voters would change voting behavior based on political memes. By utilizing the mixed-methods research approach a comprehensive survey research study will be preformed followed by an intricate data analysis to justify and interpret the findings along with an explanation of the participants responses. The new research this study uses will serve as a means of guiding further research within this topic and field of study.
References
Bagdasarov, Z., Martin, A., Chauhan, R., & Connelly, S. (2017). Aristotle, Kant, and . . .Facebook? A Look at the Implications of Social Media on Ethics. Ethics & Behavior, 27(7), 547-561. Retrieved July 2021, from https://trine.on.worldcat.org/oclc/7149878014
California State University. (1998, August). Chapter 3 -- Survey Research Design and Quantitative Methods of Analysis for Cross-sectional Data. Retrieved July 2021, from Social Science Research & Instructional Center: https://www.ssric.org/trd/modules/cowi/chapter3#collapse0
Creative Research Systems. (2021). Sample Size Calculator. Retrieved July 2021, from Creative Research Systems: https://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm
Creswell, J. W. (2009). Writing Strategies and Ethical Considerations. In Research Design: Qualitative, Quantitative, and Mixed Methods Approaches (3rd ed., pp. 87-93). Sage.
Films Media Group. (2011). Memes. Films on Demand. Retrieved July 2021, from https://fod-infobase-com.tuproxy.palni.edu/PortalPlaylists.aspx?wID=103978&xtid=71225.
FoodRisC. (2016). Mixed Methods Research. Retrieved July 2021, from FoodRisc Resource Centre: http://resourcecentre.foodrisc.org/mixed-methods-research_185.html
Hansen, I., & Lim, D. J. (2019). Doxing democracy: influencing elections via cyber voter interference. Contemporary Politics, 25(2), 150-171. Retrieved July 2021, from https://trine.on.worldcat.org/oclc/8016056070
Suter, W. N. (2011). Qualitative Data, Analysis, and Design. In Introduction to Educational Research: A Critical Thinking Approach (pp. 342-386). Sage. Retrieved July 2021, from https://www.sagepub.com/sites/default/files/upm-binaries/43144_12.pdf
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